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Ahead of Wall Street
Apple Earnings Boost Overall Q4 Growth
Posted Wed Jan 28, 08:57 am ET
by Sheraz Mian
Wednesday, January 28, 2015

The Fed meeting and a barrage of earnings reports provide the backdrop for today’s trading action. Stocks were down big on Tuesday in response to weak earnings reports from a host of blue-chip operators. But the mood may be a lot more positive following the strong Boeing (BA) report this morning and the record Apple (AAPL) announcement last evening.

The decision facing the Fed is far from simple. Everybody expects the FOMC to start raising rates by the middle of the year, meaning in June. With the day of reckoning this close, the committee needs to start telling the markets in more concrete terms pretty soon. The Fed may not have to show its hand at today’s meeting, but certainly will at one of the next two meetings, in February or April.

The problem is that the Fed may be having second thoughts over its earlier plans for mid-2015, given the subdued U.S. pricing pressures and the uncertain international backdrop. The high value of the U.S. dollar has emerged as a recurring theme in the ongoing Q4 earnings season, as have concerns about global growth.

On the earnings front, Apple’s blockbuster report after the close on Tuesday has single-handedly turned around the aggregate Q4 earnings picture. While growth didn’t compare favorably with other recent quarters prior to the $18 billion earnings report from Apple, it is broadly in-line with the recent past, post-Apple.

Including this morning’s reports from Boeing, International Paper (IP) and others, we now have Q4 results from 97 S&P 500 members that combined account for 42.4% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these companies are up +6.5% on +3.9% higher revenues, with 71.9% beating EPS estimates and 49.3% coming ahead of top-line expectations.

The growth picture has no doubt improved following the Apple report, but the trend on the estimate revisions front is still overwhelmingly negative. Estimates for 2015 Q1 and Q2 are falling at such a fast clip — thanks to oil and the strong dollar — that the first half 2105 growth rate for S&P 500 companies has essentially evaporated in recent days. And with the bulk of the Q4 reports still ahead of us, there is likely still plenty of downside to these estimates.  

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Soft Results as Q4 Earnings Limp On
Posted Tue Jan 27, 08:56 am ET
by Sheraz Mian
Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Earnings remain front and center in today’s session, with soft results from a number of industry leaders weighing on investor confidence. Today’s reports spotlight companies lowering guidance due to a combination of global growth worries and currency issues.  

The tone and substance of this morning’s long line-up of Q4 results (more than 30 S&P 500 members are reporting results today, including 21 this morning) is overwhelmingly soft. That’s the takeaway from looking at this morning’s reports United Technology (UTX), 3M (MMM), DuPont (DD), Caterpillar (CAT) and others.

Including this morning’s reports from these and other companies, we now have Q4 results from 119 S&P 500 members that combined account for 34.6% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 119 companies are up +2.7% from the same period last year, with 71.4% of the companies beating earnings estimates. Total revenues are up +2%, with 40.3% beating top-line estimates.

This is weak compared to what we have seen from the same group of companies in recent quarters – the earnings and revenue growth rates are lower, and fewer companies are coming out with positive revenue surprises.

Of today’s releases, the Caterpillar report is particularly notable as it plays directly into the ongoing global growth worries. The company not only missed Q4 estimates, but guided materially lower for 2015. They are guiding towards 2015 EPS of $4.75 on $50 billion in revenues, significantly below the current Zacks Consensus for 2015 of $6.69 in EPS on $54.6 billion in revenues. The company is blaming developments in the oil patch for its lowered guidance. But in a larger sense, the oil story is essentially a reflection of the global growth picture.

Caterpillar’s oil exposure has come as a surprise to a lot of us, though we all understood that the commodity’s sharp fall would be a drag on the Energy sector companies. We see that play out in the lowered estimates for the Energy sector for Q4 as well as the current and following quarters. In fact, the magnitude of energy-driven negative revisions for 2015 Q1 and Q2 is so severe that the first half 2015 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 index as a whole has almost evaporated.

It is perhaps reasonable to expect that, in the long run, oil’s pain will be the consumer’s gain. But we will likely have to wait quite a bit to see that in the aggregate earnings data – we are definitely not seeing that in the earnings numbers in front of us.

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Greek Election Colors Eurozone
Posted Mon Jan 26, 08:51 am ET
by Sheraz Mian
Monday, January 26, 2105

The high victory margin for the anti-austerity party in the Greek elections over the weekend has added an element of uncertainty to the markets, but last week’s European Central Bank (ECB) action has helped cushion the markets to a large extent. Greece aside, market participants will be focused on the Q4 earnings season, with the reporting cycle ramping up materially this week.

The markets’ sanguine reaction to the Syriza Party win in the Greek elections reflects the reality that the election outcome was hardly a surprise. That said, Syriza’s margin of victory was bigger than expected. But it isn’t unreasonable to believe, as many in the markets seem to, that the new Greek leaders will have to find a way to compromise with its troika of international creditors.

It’s one thing to make outrageous claims while running for office, but assuming leadership responsibilities has a way of channeling behavior in the desired direction. After all, Euro-Zone leaders may not be as averse to let Greece exit the currency union compared to a few years back when the region’s banks were a lot more exposed. But beyond these reasons is the fact that last week’s action by ECB President Mario Draghi has given the markets enough ammunition to withstand the new Greece-centric worries.

Beyond Greece, we are in the midst of the 2014 Q4 earnings season — this week is the busiest of the reporting cycle so far, with more than 130 S&P 500 companies reporting results. Including this morning’s reports from D.R. Horton (DHI), Norfolk Southern (NSC) and others, we now have Q4 results from 97 S&P 500 members that combined account for 26% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these companies are up +3.2% on +2.2% higher revenues, with 72.2% beating EPS estimates and 49.5% coming ahead of top-line expectations. Finance is a big drag on the aggregate results at this stage, but the growth picture would be weak relative to other recent quarters even after excluding Finance from the numbers.

Earnings reports the rest of this week could change the picture, but at this stage Q4 is tracking below other recent quarters in terms of growth rates and revenue surprises. The one area in which the Q4 earnings season is doing better relative to the last few reporting cycles is with respect to earnings beat ratios – not many companies are beating revenue estimates, but the ratio of companies coming ahead of EPS estimates is tracking levels above the recent past.

Another notable aspect of this earnings season is the magnitude of negative revisions for the current and following quarters, with estimates for 2015 Q1 and Q2 falling sharply in recent days. With the bulk of the Q4 reports still ahead of us, there is likely still plenty of downside to these estimates.  

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Q4 Earnings Shaping Up Weakly
Posted Fri Jan 23, 08:58 am ET
by Sheraz Mian
Friday, January 23, 2015

Stocks will likely continue to cheer the big monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) even as the picture emerging from Q4 earnings season is less than reassuring. Oil has been a big drag on earnings. The Saudi news has brought a modest uptick in oil prices today, but the commodity’s cumulative price thus far has effectively eliminated all earnings growth in the first half of 2015.

Including this morning’s reports from General Electric (GE), McDonald’s (MCD) and others, we now have Q4 results from 89 S&P 500 members that combined account for 25% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these companies are up +3.5% on +2.2% higher revenues, with 73% beating EPS estimates and 51.7% coming ahead of top-line expectations. Finance is a big drag on the aggregate results at this stage, but the growth picture is nevertheless weak relative to other recent quarters even after excluding Finance from the numbers.

This could change in the coming days as the flood of results arrive next week, but Q4 is tracking below other recent quarters in terms of growth rates and revenue surprises. The one area in which the Q4 earnings season is doing better relative to the last few reporting cycles is with respect to earnings beat ratios – while not many companies are beating revenue estimates, the ratio of companies coming ahead of EPS estimates is tracking levels above the recent past. Another notable aspect of this earnings season is the magnitude of negative revisions for the current and following quarters.

The overwhelmingly negative tone of management guidance in recent quarters has been a big reason for negative estimate revisions for a while now. The falling oil prices have added to the negative guidance trend, causing an above-average level of negative revisions in Q4 and the trend even more pronounced in the current and following quarters. Earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q1 has dropped from +10.8% in early October to +1.2% at present while the same for Q2 has dropped from +7.4% to -1.2%. This negative revisions pace will most likely accelerate some more as the reporting cycle ramps up next week.

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

ECB Finally Delivers QE
Posted Thu Jan 22, 09:14 am ET
by Sheraz Mian
Thursday, January 22, 2015

It’s all about Europe today, with the region’s central bank finally coming around to doing things that they had long promised they would do. Markets were looking for the Euro-zone version of the QE and the European Central Bank (ECB) finally came through on that today. With this action, Mario Draghi, the ECB president, proved that he is able to deliver on his word, which is good for the long-term credibility of the institution.  

The U.S. Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have been using QE programs in a variety of ways for years now and they have largely been successful in keeping interest rates low and pushing investors into riskier assets like stocks. That’s why a lot of people — yours truly included — credit the U.S. Fed for the strong stock market momentum of the past few years. But QE programs aren’t all around successes either; there is little disagreement about their role in inflating stocks and other riskier assets, but their role in helping the underlying economies is hotly debated.

Many QE partisans would credit the current improved U.S. economic outlook to the Fed’s aggressive moves. But that claim is also fiercely rebutted by claims that the U.S. economic picture would have likely gotten even better without the Fed prop. Whatever the case, the fact remains that QE programs are stock-market friendly, but their long-term utility to the underlying economy is far from clear. In the case of the Euro-zone, the hope will be two fold: First, that the ECB’s move will help anchor expectations appropriately enough to lower deflation risks, and second, that the easing of pressure on the Euro-zone member countries will not reduce their appetite for structural reforms.

Europe’s QE aside, we are in the midst of the 2014 Q4 earnings season, which has gotten off to a relatively weak start. Including this morning’s reports from Traveler’s (TRV), Verizon (VZ), Union Pacific (UNP) and others, we now have Q4 results from 76 S&P 500 members that combined account for 21.6% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 76 companies are up +2.8% from the same period last year on +2.1% higher revenues, with 75% beating EPS estimates and 46.1% coming ahead of top-line expectations.

Finance remains a drag on the aggregate growth picture, with total earnings for the sector (48% of the sector market cap has reported results) down -7.3% on -2.5% lower revenues. Excluding the Finance sector from the results thus far, total Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index would be up +11.2% on +4.2% higher revenues.

Except for the earnings beat ratio, the Q4 reporting season isn’t comparing favorably with other recent quarters – meaning earnings and revenue growth rates are lower and fewer companies are beating top-line estimates. Guidance remains weak, causing estimates for the current quarter to keep coming down.

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Finance Dragging on Q4 Earnings
Posted Wed Jan 21, 09:25 am ET
by Sheraz Mian
Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Note: Mark Vickery did an excellent job holding the AWS fort in my absence. Thanks Mark.

The IBM (IBM) earnings report on Tuesday adds to the growing list of weak readings this reporting cycle, raising questions about the broader corporate earnings picture. Elsewhere we got a better-than-expected U.S. Housing Starts report for December, with investors anticipating positive action from the European Central Bank on Thursday.

After the close on Tuesday, IBM came out with another disappointing report while Netflix (NFLX) hit it out of the park with better-than-expected subscriber additions that gave it another quarter of double-digit top-line growth. Big Blue has been an earnings laggard lately and this report didn’t do much to change that image.

Of this morning’s docket, we got broadly positive reads from regional banks like U.S. Bancorp (USB), Fifth-Third Bank (FITB) and Northern Trust (NTRI). Including these and other reports, we now have Q4 reports from 56 S&P 500 members that combined account for 17.3% of the index’s total market capitalization.

Total earnings for these 56 companies are flat from the same period last year (0% change) on +1.5% higher revenues, with 75% beating EPS estimates and 44.6% coming ahead of top-line expectations. This is weak growth performance relative to what we saw from the same group of 56 companies in Q3 and the average of the preceding four quarters. With respect to surprises, an above average proportion of companies are beating EPS estimates while top-line surprises are relatively on the low side.

The Finance sector, which has a heavy weightage in the results thus far, remains a drag on the aggregate earnings picture. With results from 40.2% of the Finance sector’s total market cap already out, total earnings for the sector are down -9.5% on -3.5% lower revenues, 70.6% of the companies EPS estimates and 23.5% beating revenue estimates. Other than earnings surprises, this is the weakest performance that we have seen from the Finance sector in a year and is the big reason for the weak aggregate picture for the S&P 500 index at this stage.

Excluding Finance from the data, the picture improves quite a bit with total earnings for the S&P 500 up +8.7% on +1.5% higher revenues. This ex-Finance performance is a lot better relative to the complete aggregate picture, but even the ex-Finance performance is weaker than what we have been seeing from this same group of ex-Finance companies in other recent quarters. More companies are beating EPS estimate relative to the past year, but the growth rates (earnings & revenue) and revenue beat ratios are on the weak side.

The tone and substance of management guidance remains no different than what we have been seeing in other recent quarters: weak. As a result, estimates for the current quarter have started coming down at an accelerated pace. A lot of the downward revision is Energy-centric at this stage, but other sectors have been weak as well. Bottom line, the picture emerging from the Q4 earnings season — at this admittedly early stage — isn’t very encouraging.

Sheraz Mian
Director of Research

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

IMF Cuts, Q4 Earnings Mixed
Posted Tue Jan 20, 08:50 am ET
by Mark Vickery
Tuesday, January 20, 2015

This is Mark Vickery covering for Sheraz Mian, who will be out of the office until Wednesday.

This morning, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast by 30 basis points — 3.5 percent from 3.8 percent — which constitutes the IMF’s biggest cut in 3 years. This follows last week’s decision by the World Bank to lower its growth forecast for all of 2015 from 3.4 percent to 3.0 percent.

Clearly these global finance agencies are concerned with the same thing investors have been concerned with since 2015 got underway: lower global growth, led in some ways by plummeting oil prices, resulting in sluggish growth in the U.S. and its markets. Whereas the IMF had earlier considered low oil prices to be a “shot in the arm” for the global economy, now the fund sees China, Japan, the Eurozone and elsewhere as presenting major challenges to overall growth.

The lone exception — among top-tier economies, anyway — is the U.S., on which the World Bank chief economist had quipped, “The global economy is running on a single engine... the American one.” But even here, results looked mixed in Q4 earnings season thus far.

While Delta Air Lines (DAL) continued to ride the fortunes of low jet fuel costs (related to cheap oil) and topped earnings estimates this morning, Morgan Stanley (MS) was light of expectations in the pre-market. Morgan Stanley shares are lower on the major investment firm lowering its compensation ratio in order to bulk up revenues going forward. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) missed earnings today as well, though Halliburton (HAL) performed relatively strongly, beating estimates. The mixed earnings narrative for Q4 earnings season continues.

Today after the closing bell, Netflix (NFLX) will report its Q4 earnings. The media streaming major now sees plenty of competition in its space, where it had been pretty much a lone entity just a few short quarters ago. Beating on both the top and bottom lines might be just what Reed Hastings’ company needs, especially considering shares of Netflix have tumbled 25 percent over the past 6 months.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Q4 Earnings Take a Breather for MLK Day
Posted Mon Jan 19, 08:49 am ET
by Mark Vickery
Monday, January 19, 2015

This is Mark Vickery covering for Sheraz Mian, who will be out of the office until Wednesday.

With the U.S. stock markets closed today for the holiday honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., this is a good time to reflect on the Q4 earnings season started recently and take a peek forward at what investors might expect coming down the pike in the coming weeks.

Aside from a typically favorable earnings report out of Intel (INTC) last week, most numbers from the big names reporting thus far for Q4 can, in aggregate, be considered zero-sum at best: for every earnings beat in homebuilding from a company like Lennar (LEN), there was a big miss from a KB Home (KBH).

Similarly, in finance, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) performed better than expected, but Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) decidedly did not. Going back even further in the quarter — prior to Alcoa’s (AA) sound earnings beat — Nike (NKE) topped estimates but FedEx (FDX) missed.

Overnight, stocks were sent plummeting on first the Shanghai then the Hang Seng markets after the China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that a dozen trading firms violated rules on margin trading. Allowing investors to delay making margin repayments, among other infractions, pushed the Shanghai composite down 7.7 percent — its biggest fall in more than six years — which led to Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index falling 1.5 percent.

This comes in the wake of falling home prices in China and an overall understanding that the Chinese economy is stumbling a bit as 2015 unfolds. Low global oil prices have stoked trepidation among investors that economies in China, Japan and Europe are struggling and will continue to do so, which in turn might weigh on the U.S. economy. So far, however, we’ve only seen evidence of this occurring on Wall Street, not so much on Main Street.

Q4 earnings season picks up again tomorrow, when we get reports before the market opens from companies as diverse as Delta Air Lines (DAL), Morgan Stanley (MS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Halliburton (HAL). After the bell Tuesday we look forward to the earnings report from Netflix (NFLX).

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Putting a Dismal Week Behind Us
Posted Fri Jan 16, 08:57 am ET
by Mark Vickery
Friday, January 16, 2015

This is Mark Vickery covering for Sheraz Mian, who will be out of the office until next Tuesday.

Most investors will be glad to put this dismal week in the markets behind them. The S&P 500, which had been hovering around the 2030 mark to begin the week — and even saw an upward push for a time on Tuesday — has now slipped to levels just under 2000.

As it is the beginning of earnings season, one might be obliged to think disappointing returns from big banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C) have had a lot to do with this, but the surprise Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision to remove the Swiss franc from the euro, as well as a continually precipitous fall in oil prices, are having a larger effect.

Expect the drumbeats to get louder regarding the need of the European Central Bank (ECB) to install its version of QE policy next week. Expect next week's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland to be rife with speculation regarding currency policy that investors hope will sop up all this uncertainty surrounding the markets, especially in light of the SNB decision yesterday.

This morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came out for December, with results coming in line at -0.4 percent. The core CPI number — minus food and energy — was +0.1 percent, unchanged from a month ago. Year over year, headline CPI reached +0.8 percent while core was at +1.6 percent. There have been no revisions to these previous numbers.

What do these numbers indicate? According to some analysts, they are more arrows in the quiver for the argument that the Fed will delay raising interest rates until sometime in 2016, rather than the mid-2015 timeline that was earlier expected. Without growth — and a December number nearly half a point to the negative would solidify a lack of growth — the Fed has no recourse for ratcheting up rates in the foreseeable future.

After the bell Thursday, Intel (INTC) posted even better earnings numbers than they had been in previous quarters — and Intel was one of the true success stories of 2014. The major chip-maker’s earnings beat reached 12 percent for Q4, indicating strength in its PC business during holiday season. Will this translate to other big-tech companies expected to report next week? Time will tell.

The market will enjoy a three-day weekend with Martin Luther King Day on Monday. However, we here at Zacks will remain on the clock, providing stock recommendations and industry analyses like any other work day. So keep informed with our up-to-date picks and outlooks, especially as Q4 earnings season accelerates into high gear.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Swiss Franc Goes Off Euro
Posted Thu Jan 15, 08:54 am ET
by Mark Vickery
Thursday, January 15, 2015

This is Mark Vickery covering for Sheraz Mian, who will be out of the office until next Tuesday.

So far, early Q4 2014 earnings season is being eclipsed by bigger headlines elsewhere. This morning, the Swiss National Bank has made the surprise decision to remove its long-standing exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs to 1 euro. Analysts consider this move strategically placed ahead of next week’s expected QE policy from the European Central Bank (ECB).

This jolt to the Eurozone markets sent Swiss stocks falling 11 percent, and has skewed futures in U.S. markets as well. Previously, expectations were for a positive open Thursday morning, but now futures have dipped back into the red.

Jobless Claims for the first full week of January leaped above 300K for the first time in awhile to 316K — an increase of 19,000 claims from last week. Obviously the energy sector was hit hard, down 6.6%, but claims also grew in services and residential markets as well. Continuing claims have now risen to a 4-month high.

We saw a positive read from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey this morning, up a higher-than-expected 9.95 percent. The previous month’s -3.65 percent read was revised upward to -1.23 percent. Count this as a glimmer of good news amid the clouds elsewhere.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) also performed slightly better than expected: -0.3 percent was up a tenth of 1 percent from the consensus. Minus food and energy — though these are admittedly even bigger factors than normal these days — the total swings to +0.3 percent. The PPI from last month was left unrevised. Year over year, PPI is up 1.1 percent — 2.1 percent subtracting energy.

Bank of America (BAC) released Q4 earnings that, like JPMorgan (JPM) before the bell yesterday, were lackluster. Profits were down 11 percent, citing the sluggish global economy and a downturn in trading and mortgage businesses. CEO Brian Moynihan still found room to cite “tremendous opportunities ahead,” but BAC shares are down 1.8 percent in the pre-market.

Finally, Target Corp. (TGT) has announced it is discontinuing its beleaguered and unprofitable Canadian operations. This has given TGT stock a boost in early morning trading: Target shares are up 7 percent from Wednesday afternoon’s close, and are now up to 52-week highs.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

Note: In order to get an email alert each time this author publishes a new article, click on the ‘Follow Author’ link at the bottom of the top-right box of links.

Recent Posts

Apple Earnings Boost Overall Q4 Growth
Wed Jan 28, 08:57 am ET

Soft Results as Q4 Earnings Limp On
Tue Jan 27, 08:56 am ET

Greek Election Colors Eurozone
Mon Jan 26, 08:51 am ET

Q4 Earnings Shaping Up Weakly
Fri Jan 23, 08:58 am ET

ECB Finally Delivers QE
Thu Jan 22, 09:14 am ET

Finance Dragging on Q4 Earnings
Wed Jan 21, 09:25 am ET

IMF Cuts, Q4 Earnings Mixed
Tue Jan 20, 08:50 am ET

Q4 Earnings Take a Breather for MLK Day
Mon Jan 19, 08:49 am ET

Putting a Dismal Week Behind Us
Fri Jan 16, 08:57 am ET

Swiss Franc Goes Off Euro
Thu Jan 15, 08:54 am ET

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